The war in Ukraine is driving up not only the prices of energy commodities or important industrial inputs, but also agricultural products and especially grain. This increases the risk that this year, a food crisis will break out in some of the countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa in trouble
Africa is the continent most vulnerable to food shortages. The International Monetary Fund estimates that the countries of sub-Saharan Africa in particular will face serious problems caused by a huge negative supply shock. It is the economies of the local states that are least prepared for such an external shock.
The food crisis may increase pressure on African countries that have not yet recovered from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The people there are at risk not only of a further fall in real incomes, but also of rising debt and the consequent fall into even greater poverty.
The DRC and Madagascar will suffer the most
An International Monetary Fund report states that countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo or Madagascar are most at risk from the food crisis. Food accounts for 40 percent of total household consumption, the highest share of any country. These countries have already asked the International Monetary Fund for help.
