Expectations for US President Donald Trump’s second term in office, which has just begun, vary significantly by region among economic experts. This is according to the joint Economic Experts Survey of the Munich-based Ifo Economic Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. Concern and pessimism are particularly prevalent among North American and Western European experts. Economists in other parts of the world expect a rather small negative or neutral impact, with optimism emerging elsewhere, the Ifo Institute said.
Damage to the economy
“Concerns that Donald Trump will damage the economy are particularly widespread in Western industrialised countries,” said Ifo researcher Niklas Potrafke. “In Africa, Latin America and Asia, by contrast, experts expect almost no negative impact on economic growth in their countries,” he added.
Experts’ views on the future of trade policy are relatively consistent, with 80 percent sharing negative expectations. In North America, Europe and Oceania, almost all experts surveyed expect international trade to be more difficult under the Trump administration. While economists in Asia, Africa and South America share some of the concern, their level of concern is somewhat lower.
Divergent views
Conversely, when it comes to economic growth, economists’ views differ markedly. Pessimism prevails in Western and Eastern Europe, with more than 80 percent of respondents expecting a negative impact of a Trump presidency on growth. A negative view also prevails among experts in North America.
By contrast, views in other parts of the world, particularly in Africa and Asia, are less critical. In many regions of these continents, most experts do not foresee a significant negative impact on economic growth in their countries, the Ifo Institute added.
The Economic Experts Survey is a quarterly survey conducted by the Ifo Institute and the Swiss Economic Policy Institute. 1,398 economic experts from 125 countries took part in the latest survey focused on Trump’s presidency from 4 December to 18 December last year.
Source: Czech Press Office
